Betting on MMA underdogs can be one of the most exciting and potentially profitable strategies, but it requires more than just luck. While the odds might be stacked against them, underdogs in MMA have been known to pull off shocking upsets. To increase your chances of cashing in on these high-risk, high-reward bets, you need to approach underdog betting with a strategic mindset. In this blog, we’ll break down the top 10 strategies that can help you bet smart and effectively on MMA underdogs.
1. Study Fighter Styles and Matchups
MMA is a sport where styles make fights, and often, an underdog can overcome a more popular favorite if the stylistic matchup is in their favor. If an underdog has a unique style that can exploit a favorite’s weaknesses, it could be a significant factor in their success.
• Example: A strong wrestler could dominate a striker by controlling the fight on the ground, even if the striker is considered more talented on the feet.
• Strategy: Always evaluate how a fighter’s strengths and weaknesses match up against their opponent’s. Look for areas where the underdog might have an advantage based on skill set or fight tactics.
2. Look for Overlooked Fighters
Underdogs can often be underestimated, and fighters who might not have the flashy records or hype surrounding them can slip under the radar. These are the fighters who tend to get overlooked by the public and the odds makers, creating value.
• Example: A fighter with a less-than-impressive record who has faced tough competition and performed well under pressure may be a great underdog bet.
• Strategy: Research underappreciated fighters and their past performances. Pay attention to their fight IQ, adaptability, and ability to perform against tough competition.
3. Consider the Betting Line Movement
Pay attention to how betting lines move in the lead-up to the fight. If there’s a significant shift, especially if it’s in favor of the underdog, it could indicate that sharp bettors see value in them.
• Example: A fighter who opens as a +250 underdog but sees the line shift to +150 may be getting heavy action from smart money, suggesting an upset is more likely.
• Strategy: Watch the betting line closely and adjust your bets accordingly. If you see substantial line movement, dig deeper into the reasons behind it, as it could be a signal that the underdog has a strong chance.
4. Factor in Fight Locations and Environment
Fighters who perform well in specific environments can surprise the odds. A fighter who thrives in their home country or a particular event may be an underrated underdog.
• Example: Some fighters perform exceptionally well in hostile environments, like underdog fighters coming from countries where they have a strong fanbase.
• Strategy: Factor in the location of the fight, and consider how a fighter might benefit from a familiar setting, crowd support, or advantageous travel conditions.
5. Don’t Overvalue Recent Performances
It’s tempting to base bets purely on a fighter’s last performance, but MMA is unpredictable. Just because a fighter had a poor performance in their previous bout doesn’t mean they’re destined to underperform again.
• Example: A fighter who lost badly in their last fight might be undervalued by the odds, despite having previously beaten top-tier competition.
• Strategy: Look at a fighter’s overall body of work, not just their last fight. Check for patterns and consistency over time rather than overreacting to a single loss or bad performance.
6. Consider Fighters with Underrated Durability
Some underdogs may not have the flashiest skills or knockout power, but they have impressive durability. They can survive longer in fights, tire out their opponents, and potentially take advantage of mistakes made by the favorite.
• Example: A fighter who can take a beating and continue pressing forward can wear down an opponent, especially if the favorite has a tendency to gas out or crack under pressure.
• Strategy: Look for underdogs who are tough, resilient, and able to last deep into the fight. Durability is often an overlooked attribute that can turn the tide in an upset.
7. Analyze Weight Class and Fitness
Weight cuts can have a significant impact on a fighter’s performance, and underdogs who come into a fight properly conditioned or well-adjusted to their weight class may outperform favorites who struggle with weight issues.
• Example: An underdog who fights at their natural weight and enters the fight in peak physical condition may have an advantage over a favorite who struggled with a grueling weight cut.
• Strategy: Research fighters’ past weight cuts and assess how well they perform at certain weight classes. If the favorite has had issues with cuts or cardio, the underdog might be a good bet.
8. Keep an Eye on Fighter Motivation
A fighter’s mental state and motivation can make all the difference in MMA. Underdogs may come into a fight with something to prove, making them more dangerous and focused.
• Example: A fighter who is fighting for a contract, to avenge a previous loss, or to make a career comeback may bring extra motivation that the favorite lacks.
• Strategy: Consider the psychological factors that might be driving each fighter. Fighters who have something to prove or personal stakes in the fight may be more dangerous than they appear.
9. Look for Underdogs in Tight Matchups
Betting on underdogs is often more lucrative in close matchups where the odds don’t fully reflect the reality of the fight. These are the situations where the underdog may be undervalued.
• Example: A fight between two relatively even fighters, with one underdog receiving more attention than the other, could be an opportunity to back the overlooked fighter.
• Strategy: In close fights, focus on the less popular underdog who may have a slightly better skillset or a more favorable game plan. The odds may not always reflect this nuance.
10. Consider the Long-Term Value
Betting on underdogs consistently is a long-term strategy. You’re not going to win every bet, but over time, the value of underdog bets can provide strong returns.
• Example: Consistently backing underdogs who are mispriced by bookmakers can result in solid profits, especially when they win at a higher rate than expected.
• Strategy: View betting on MMA underdogs as a marathon, not a sprint. With patience and discipline, underdog bets can be a reliable way to build long-term profits.
Conclusion
Betting on MMA underdogs requires a combination of research, patience, and strategy. By focusing on fight styles, assessing key factors like motivation, durability, and betting line movement, you can identify opportunities where underdogs stand a real chance. Betting on underdogs might seem risky, but when done correctly, it can be one of the smartest plays in MMA betting.
Remember, while underdog betting can be volatile, a well-researched and disciplined approach will give you the edge in the long run. Keep refining your strategy, and don’t be afraid to back the underdog when the odds are in your favor!
