In MMA, hype is a dangerous thing—especially for bettors. Every year, the UFC pushes certain fighters as “the next big thing,” and the betting public buys in without question. But not all hype trains reach the station. Some derail spectacularly, leaving bettors who backed them staring at a losing ticket.
So how do you avoid falling for an overrated fighter before the odds crash? Let’s break down the red flags that signal when a fighter’s hype doesn’t match their true skill level.
1. Inflated Records: When 10-0 Doesn’t Mean Much
A spotless record looks great on paper, but not all undefeated fighters are created equal. The key is who they’ve fought, not just how many they’ve beaten. Many rising prospects build their records against regional competition or late-notice opponents who weren’t UFC-caliber.
Red Flags to Watch For:
• A record filled with fighters who have losing records or short-notice replacements.
• Wins against opponents who are now cut from the UFC or struggling.
• No experience against ranked or well-rounded competition.
Example: Edmen Shahbazyan started 11-0 with a ton of hype, but his opponents were handpicked for him. When he finally faced a complete fighter in Derek Brunson, he got exposed.
2. The UFC Marketing Machine: When the Promotion Drives the Hype
The UFC knows how to sell a star. Fighters with marketable personalities, highlight-reel knockouts, or strong regional followings often get extra promotional push—even if their actual skill level doesn’t match the attention.
Red Flags to Watch For:
• Getting main event spots too early without beating top contenders.
• Heavy promotional focus on their story or personality rather than their skill set.
• Dana White calling them the “next big thing” before they’ve proven themselves.
Example: Paddy Pimblett has been pushed hard as the UK’s next superstar, but his last few performances exposed major holes in his striking and defense. The UFC’s marketing doesn’t change the fact that he barely scraped by Jared Gordon.
3. Over-Reliance on One Weapon
Hyped fighters often get attention because they’re dominant in one area—whether it’s knockout power, submissions, or wrestling. But once they face well-rounded competition, that one-dimensional game can fall apart.
Red Flags to Watch For:
• All of their wins come from one method (only striking, only wrestling, etc.)
• They’ve never had to fight out of bad positions or go deep into fights.
• A history of crushing early finishes but no proven gas tank.
Example: Greg Hardy looked unstoppable against lower-level heavyweights, racking up early knockouts. But when he faced fighters who could take him past the first round, his lack of cardio and ground game became glaring weaknesses.
4. Betting Public Overreaction: When Casuals Pump the Line
Hype doesn’t just come from the UFC—it also comes from fans and casual bettors who see highlights and assume dominance. If a fighter goes viral for a flashy finish, their odds can skyrocket beyond what’s reasonable.
Red Flags to Watch For:
• Massive line shifts with public money flooding in early (not sharp bettors).
• A fighter’s odds shortening despite no real improvements or key wins.
• Heavy fan-driven narratives (“This guy is the future!”) without solid evidence.
Example: Sean O’Malley had huge hype early in his career, but when he first fought a durable, experienced opponent like Marlon Vera, he was exposed. Bettors who bought the hype without questioning his durability lost money.
How to Capitalize on Overhyped Fighters
Instead of falling for the hype, fade these fighters at the right time:
• Bet against them once they face their first real test. If they’ve only fought cans, wait for their first ranked opponent and look for value on the other side.
• Look for live betting opportunities. If they gas out early or struggle when Plan A doesn’t work, you can grab big value mid-fight.
• Consider the underdog inside the distance. If the hype train is built on quick finishes, an experienced opponent could stop them in devastating fashion.
Final Thoughts
Every year, the UFC and the betting public create hype around certain fighters—but not all of them live up to it. By recognizing the red flags, you can stay ahead of the sportsbooks and avoid betting on the next overhyped prospect.
